Very important and to remember – The most dangerous place on earth is in Poland?

Suwałki – Vikipeedia
SUWAŁKI

Strategic importance of the Suwałki Gap

07/07/2022 16:33 Broadcast on Polish Radio

– The Suwałki Gap is of great strategic importance in the area of security, as well as in terms of economic development, for the Baltic states – Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. Thus, it is very important for the North Atlantic Alliance in the event of an armed conflict with the Russian Federation – said General Bogusław Samol, director of the Institute of Military Strategy of the Academy of Martial Arts in an interview with PolskieRadio24.pl.

If not the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the areas around Suwałki, Augustów and Sejny would be discussed today mainly in the context of possible places where it is worth spending a vacation. There are beautiful, wooded areas cut by rivers and picturesque lakes there. However, the situation beyond our eastern border and the tension surrounding the Russian exclave, which is the Kaliningrad Oblast, sparked a discussion about the strategic importance of the Suwałki Gap. This 100-kilometer section of the Polish-Lithuanian border is NATO’s only land link with the Baltic states – Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. It is also a kind of barrier separating the aforementioned Kaliningrad Oblast from Belarus. For this reason, this area is so important for NATO, but also for Russia. Already in 2015, the American general Benjamin Hodges, the commander of the US Army Europe ground forces at that time, drew attention to it. He said it is potentially the most inflammatory spot in Europe. The significance of the Suwałki Gap was again discussed when the Lithuanian authorities forbade the transit of goods from Russia to the Kaliningrad Oblast a few days ago. These are goods subject to sanctions, such as, inter alia, building materials, cement, metals. As a result of these actions, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs demanded that Lithuania immediately lift „hostile restrictions”. „If the transit of goods between the Kaliningrad Oblast and the rest of the Russian Federation via Lithuania is not fully restored in the near future, Russia reserves the right to take measures to protect its national interests,” the ministry said in a statement.

Take action? What kind? Where? – military, politicians and experts are wondering.

In connection with these threats, a small area lying at the junction of Poland and Lithuania – the Suwałki Gap, was again placed under their magnifying glass. And people living in this „most dangerous place on earth” – as the American website Politico recently wrote – ask themselves whether they can feel safe?

We asked General Bogusław Samol, director of the Institute of Military Strategy of the Military Art Academy, about the strategic importance of the Suwałki Gap and the safety of the people living there.

The Suwałki isthmus was described by American journalists of the Politico portal as „the most dangerous place on Earth”. In turn, General Benjamin Hodges in 2015, when he commanded the American ground forces in Europe, stated that it was potentially the most inflammatory point in Europe. Are these terms exaggerated? What is the significance of this relatively small area between Poland and Lithuania from the point of view of military strategy?

Gen. Bogusław Samol, director of the Institute of Military Strategy of the Academy of Martial Arts:

The Suwałki Gap is of great strategic importance in the area of ​​security, as well as in terms of economic development, for the Baltic states – Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. Thus, it is very important for the North Atlantic Alliance in the event of an armed conflict with the Russian Federation. It is also of great importance for the Russian Federation, because railway and road communication routes run through the Suwałki Gap from Belarus to the Kaliningrad Oblast. They are very important for this district in terms of providing the population with livelihoods. But also from the military point of view, it is an area that, in a sense, separates the 11th Army Corps stationed in the Kaliningrad Oblast from the Russian troops of the Western Military District. This area is of great importance to both sides. But it should also be remembered that the Kaliningrad Oblast, along with the Suwałki Gap, plays a very important role in the area of ​​security for Poland and Central Europe, if Russia decided to launch a military strike and aggression against these three Baltic countries. The Suwałki Isthmus is very important in terms of the transfer of large masses of allied troops to the area of ​​an armed conflict, should it occur. Therefore, Poland plays a very important role here, as it is becoming a transit country for these troops, which will make it vulnerable to an attack by the other side. Road, railway and airport infrastructure facilities will be mainly exposed. So there is no exaggeration if someone says that this is a very important point in the world. I would say that it may not be as important for world security as it is for security on the Eurasian continent. However, referring to the words of General Hodges: the fact that in 2015 he visited the Suwałki Gap is my merit, because in 2014, when I was the commander of the Multinational Corps Northeast, I participated in the certification process of the NATO land component command. As part of this certification, exercises were carried out in the area of ​​the Baltic States. It was then that I noticed that this exercise lacked the strategic depth that Poland provides with Germany through the Suwałki Gap. It caused great surprise that such a thing exists. And while the Kaliningrad Oblast was known to the commanders, the Suwałki Gap was absolutely not. When General Benjamin Hodges became commander of the US ground forces in Europe, he began a reconnaissance of the area. It was then that the general said that it was potentially the most inflammatory point in Europe. Without bragging about it, in a sense I had a share in drawing the attention of my colleagues from NATO generals to the importance of the Suwałki Gap in the security area of ​​the Baltic countries, but also in the use of American troops in this direction.

After Lithuania banned the transport of sanctioned Russian goods to the Kaliningrad Oblast, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that it would „take measures to protect its national interests”. At present, it is rather unlikely that Russia will retaliate against opening a new front in the Suwałki Gap, thus risking a conflict with NATO. But, given the dark scenarios, is this possible in the future? Can we expect Russian military actions that would initiate a conflict with NATO?

Gen. arms Bogusław Samol:

I believe that such an event may take place in the future. As you noted, Russia is currently not ready to open a second front on NATO’s northeastern flank because of its involvement in Ukraine. On the other hand, taking into account the possibility of a rift, i.e. the lack of a uniform policy of the North Atlantic Alliance and the European Union towards the Russian state, and if such a situation arose that the countries would approach the security of the Baltic countries differently, Russia may decide to strike in the future. It may attack the territory of Lithuania, but you also need to take into account attacks on part of Poland in order to block this area. Russia will want to create a connection between the Kaliningrad Oblast and Belarus in this way. We dealt with a similar situation in 1939, when the Germans demanded the so-called the Pomeranian corridor and such a „Suwałki corridor”, Vladimir Putin may apply in the future. Especially that in the recent past, opinions have been voiced by the Russian Federation to create such a belt. It didn’t happen. The Baltic states and Poland reacted decisively then. On the other hand, if the North Atlantic Alliance is coherent and is supported by the United States, which located its troops on Polish territory on the eve of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Russia will not dare to engage in any military action. Russia, bearing in mind the possible actions of NATO, must take steps to supply the Kaliningrad Oblast by other routes, using the airspace over the Baltic Sea or by sea from St. Petersburg to Kaliningrad.

General Waldemar Skrzypczak, former commander of the land forces, in an interview with Gazeta.pl said, inter alia, that: „the operational calculations take into account the availability of the land. The Suwałki isthmus is difficult in this respect – wooded, hilly, cut by lakes and rivers. Packing in this area is like packing in Donbass. As we can see, the Russians are stuck there. ” He also noted that from a military point of view, the area to the north of the isthmus is much easier. It is a flat area in the territory of Lithuania. Do you agree with this thesis?

Taking into account the aspect you mentioned, the opinion of General Skrzypczak should be shared. However, I see an even worse, different solution. I often repeat this to defense policy students that if Russia wanted to connect with the Kaliningrad Oblast and cut off the Baltic states, it would be enough to hit the north-eastern parts of Poland. Poland would have a great problem with maintaining its territorial integrity. Of course, this issue also needs to be seen in the context of the Alliance’s solidarity. I do not think Russia will go in that direction. Russia cannot afford a conflict with NATO countries, even if the Baltic states are militarily weak and we know perfectly well that they will not defend themselves. A larger number of allied troops is needed in the territory of the Baltic states. Here, I do not mean only the battalions themselves, but what has been repeated for several days by public opinion, by Polish politicians and the president, that the presence of the Alliance on the north-eastern flank should be increased in the form of divisions, and maybe even larger operational units. I hope that such a decision will be made at the upcoming NATO summit.

There are also opinions in the public space that perhaps NATO, or individual European countries, will not want to take military action when Russia attacks the Suwałki Gap. They may decide that such a small piece of land is not worth dragging the Alliance into a war with Russia. It is also worth recalling, however, that a few months ago, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg asked about this said that „we are in Kaliningrad and in every land corridor to protect all NATO allies. And this, of course, also includes the Suwałki Gap and the territory of both Poland and Poland. and Lithuania „. What is your opinion on this? There is a risk that in an extreme situation, when Russia attacks, there will be a discussion whether to fight for this area?

If the North Atlantic Alliance and the European Union want to be credible towards the Baltic states, they must be aware that this Suwałki Gap is of strategic importance for the security of the Baltic states and Poland. In addition, it allows in the future, in the event of an attack on these countries by Russia, to conduct a joint NATO operation. I repeat once again: if this isthmus were captured by the Russians, and NATO decided to support the NATO countries, the Alliance would have to make an incredible effort to move troops to the territory of the Baltic countries by sea or air. It would just be very difficult. On the other hand, this narrow corridor is very well connected with the Polish road communication system, railways and airports, which allows for a quick reaction of the Alliance, and then the relocation of troops in the event of a developing conflict. In addition, forces should be created that will act as a deterrent and, at the same time, guarantee security. I’m talking about units of the size of brigades or even divisions. The area of ​​the Baltic states is an important element in the system of operations due to the fact that it forms a flank, and thus the possibility of an attack on Russia if it started its aggression towards Poland from at least two directions – Brześć or Grodno-Białystok. A group of NATO troops in this area would be a deterrent for the Alliance and the Russians would be in check, and therefore, from the point of view of Poland’s security, increasing the number of allied troops is in our country’s interest.

One of the key questions that you have already answered is whether it is safe in the area now. This question is extremely important from the perspective of the people who live there. But are their appeals to the government to build shelters in the area – which are coming through the media – justified? How can you increase the safety of the inhabitants of Suwałki, Augustów or Sejny?

From my point of view, the experience of what is happening in Ukraine, how the Russians massively use artillery and missile troops to attack localities, the state should, of course, ensure the conditions of survival for the Polish population in this area in the event of a future armed conflict. This can be done by building a shelter and hide system, but also by developing plans for the temporary evacuation of civilians from the area. When considering a potential conflict over this area, it should be borne in mind that the range of the Russian side’s means of destruction allows the destruction of facilities located deep in our country, and therefore the entire territory of our country should be covered by such preparations.

This may seem like a trivial question, but from the point of view of people who live from tourism, it is extremely important: whether Poles can safely plan a vacation near the Polish-Lithuanian border, or more broadly, in the north-eastern part of the country?

Suwałki - Wikipedia
Suwalki

This is a beautiful corner of Poland and you should use it for as long as possible. Now only the weather decides, though it shouldn’t be the key factor either. It is a great place for walks, for cycling. There is no war in Poland and hopefully never will be. And if we were to take into account the Russian threats, we should not leave the house, but build shelters. They have been threatening Poland for several years, since the independence of the Republic of Poland. Several years ago, when I was a student of the NATO Defense Academy, we made a study trip to Moscow. During the meeting with the general staff, I asked why Russia is expanding its military potential, especially in the Kaliningrad Oblast, when Poland has decided to significantly reduce its armed forces and is not threatening Russia. One of the Russian generals said directly: „You Poles must understand that the territory of the Polish state is a security zone for the Russian Federation.” Nothing has changed in this way of thinking for years. So, thinking about whether the Russians are threatening us, sitting at home and not visiting this beautiful corner, is a loss of pleasure that nobody takes from us now. They will scare you and they will frighten you. I also often go to these areas to rest there.

Paweł Kurek spoke PR24 / dad

For our journal; Translation and development Artur Solonka

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